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No. 2015_9   (Download full text)
T.D. Stanley, Chris Doucouliagos and Piers Steel
Does ICT Generate Economic Growth? A Meta-Regression Analysis
In this paper, we apply meta-regression analysis to 58 studies that explore the impact of ICT on economic growth. We find evidence of econometric specification bias and publication selection bias in favor of positive growth effects. After correcting these biases, we show that ICT has contributed positively to economic growth, on average. We find that both developed and developing countries benefit equally from landline and cell technologies, with cell’s contribution to growth being double that of landline. However, developed countries gain significantly more from computing than do developing countries. In contrast, the Internet has had little effect on growth.
JEL-Codes: O3, O4
Keywords: ICT, economic growth, meta-regression analysis
No. 2015_8   (Download full text)
Cahit Guven, Gizem Nur Han, Zolzaya Luvsandorj and Mehmet Ulubasoglu
The Effects of the Gallipoli Campaign on Turkish Child Survivors in Anatolia
The Gallipoli Campaign was one of the hardest fought wars in modern human history. A manmade disaster that occurred exactly 100 years ago on a narrow geographic strip on the Gallipoli peninsula, it claimed the lives of a total of approximately 120,000 soldiers from the belligerent powers, the Ottoman Empire on one side, and Britain, France, Australia, New Zealand, British India and Newfoundland, on the other. Despite its significance in the world history, the Gallipoli Campaign has been subject to little systematic investigation for its consequences. We empirically examine the effects of this war on children who lived in Anatolia and were aged under five in 1915. Combining the Turkish census data with military records that provide information on the number of Turkish soldiers killed in the Gallipoli Campaign from each of 67 provinces in Turkey, we find significant evidence that the war severely affected the socioeconomic outcomes of many survivor children later in life. Our estimates document that, for every additional 1,000 soldiers killed from a province, indicating the severity of the war exposure, children from that province lost 0.12 to 0.17 years of schooling, or were 1.3% to 2.5% more likely to remain illiterate. These are substantive effects given that average years of schooling in our whole sample is 1.47 years and literacy rate is 34%. Our results are robust to controlling for birth-year- and birth-province-fixed effects, falsification tests, and alternative definitions of treatment.
Keywords: Gallipoli War, children, socioeconomic outcomes in adulthood, treatment
No. 2015_7   (Download full text)
Debdulal Mallick
A Spectral Representation of the Phillips Curve in Australia
We present the Phillips curve in Australia in the frequency domain and document an evolving pattern in its slope at low frequencies under different monetary policy regimes and labor market regulations. The RBA adopted monetary targeting in 1976 and inflation targeting in 1993. There were important changes in the labor relations during mid-1980s-mid-1990s. We document an upward sloping medium-run Phillips curve in the pre-1977 period, a downward sloping long-run Phillips curve during 1977-1993, and a flattened Phillips curve from 1993 onwards. Inflation lagged unemployment during the first period but led during the second period. The Phillips curve at business-cycle frequencies is downward sloping in all periods. The flattened Phillips curve is also observed in several industrialized countries that adopted inflation targeting.
JEL-Codes: E24, E31, E32, C49
Keywords: Phillips curve, Long-run, Business-cycle, Frequency, Spectral method
No. 2015_6   (Download full text)
Wang-Sheng Lee
Big and Tall: Is there a Height Premium or Obesity Penalty in the Labor Market?
Previous studies have shown that both height and BMI are associated with wages. However, by focusing on interpreting the partial effects of either height or BMI on wages while holding all else constant, some gaps in our understanding of the complex relationship between body size and wages remain. Utilizing a semi-parametric spline approach, we first establish that a flexible analysis of height and weight provides a useful and meaningful proxy for beauty. A similar flexible analysis of height, weight and wages reveals that some combinations of anthropometric measurements attract higher wage premiums than others and that the optimal combination varies over the life cycle. A main contribution of the paper is in suggesting a novel and practical way of examining the returns to looks in the labor market based on objective anthropometric measurements.
JEL-Codes: J31, J71
Keywords: height, P-spline, semi-parametric, wages, weight
No. 2015_5   (Download full text)
Nejat Anbarci, Ching-Jen Sun and M. Utku Unver
Designing Fair Tiebreak Mechanisms: The Case of FIFA Penalty Shootouts
In the current FIFA penalty shootout mechanism, a coin toss decides which team will kick first. Empirical evidence suggests that the team taking the first kick has a higher probability to win a shootout. We design sequentially fair shootout mechanisms such that in all symmetric Markov-perfect equilibria each of the skill-balanced teams has exactly 50% chance to win whenever the score is tied at any round. Consistent with empirical evidence, we show that the current mechanism is not sequentially fair and characterize all sequentially fair mechanisms. Taking additional desirable properties into consideration, we propose and uniquely characterize a practical mechanism.
JEL-Codes: D63, C79, D47
Keywords: Fairness, mechanism design, soccer, penalty shootouts, market design, axiomatic approach
No. 2015_4   (Download full text)
Ching-jen Sun
The Bargaining Correspondence: When Edgeworth Meets Nash
A new, more fundamental approach is proposed to the classical bargaining problem. The give-and-take feature in the negotiation process is explicitly modelled under the new framework. A compromise set consists of all allocations a bargainer is willing to accept as agreement. We focus on the relationship between the rationality principles (arguments) adopted by bargainers in making mutual concessions and the formation of compromise sets. The bargaining correspondence is then defined as the intersection of bargainers’ compromise sets. We study the non-emptyness, symmetry, efficiency and single-valuedness of the bargaining correspondence, and establish its connection to the Nash solution. Our framework provides the first rational foundation to Nash’s axiomatic approach, and hence bridges the “Edgeworth-Nash gap”.
JEL-Codes: C78; D74
Keywords: Bargaining Correspondence, Compromise, Edgeworth-Nash Gap, Nash Solution
No. 2015_3   (Download full text)
Michael G. Porter, Zohid Askarov and Sarah Hilborn
Securing Unlimited Water Supply in Adelaide over the Next Century Balancing Desalinated and Murray-Darling Basin Water
This paper assesses the two major water supply options for a growing but relatively dry metropolitan Adelaide – desalination and expanded trading of water from the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB). What we present in this paper is a portfolio approach suggesting a mixed strategy of desalination and water trading to meet growing demand over the hundred year period from 2014. Crucially, the scope for expanding water trading keeps average costs down, for as long as the political agreements work and drought does not prevent the use of allocations. However, our modelling shows that in the long run water trade in combination with modular augmentation of desalination capacity can achieve a mix of security and cost that avoids spikes in market prices of MDB allocations during drought. The strategy also avoids the real business and household costs, loss of garden value and inconvenience of water restrictions.
Keywords: water portfolio, water costs, desalination, augmentation costs, entitlement, allocations
No. 2015_2   (Download full text)
Pedro Gomis-Porqueras and Laura Puzzello
Winners and Losers from the euro
This paper estimates the effect of having joined the monetary union on the income per capita of six early adopters of the euro using the synthetic control method. Our estimates suggest that while the income per capita of Belgium, France, Germany and Italy would have been higher without the euro, that of Ireland would have been considerably lower. The Netherlands is estimated would have been as well off without the euro. In addition, we use the insights from the literature on the economic determinants of the costs and benefits of monetary unions to explain these income effects. We find that early euro adopters with a business cycle more synchronized to that of the union, and more open to intra-union trade and migration lost less or gained more from the euro. A key role in the transmission of post-euro income losses across union members has been played by the integration of capital markets.
JEL-Codes: C21; C23; E65; F33; N14
Keywords: Monetary Union; Synthetic Control Method; Per Capita Income; euro
No. 2015_10   (Download full text)
Mayula Chaikumbung, Hristos Doucouliagos and Helen Scarborough
The economic value of wetlands in developing countries: A meta-regression analysis
This paper presents the first comprehensive synthesis of economic valuations of wetlands in developing countries. Meta-regression analysis (MRA) is applied to 1432 estimates of the economic value of 379 distinct wetlands. We find that wetland size has a negative effect on wetland values, marine wetlands are more valuable than estuarine wetlands, and per capita GDP has a positive effect on wetland values. Wetland services for water treatment and biodiversity are valued more highly than recreation. Wetland values estimated by stated preferences are lower than those estimated by market price methods. The MRA benefit transfer function has an average transfer error of 31%, with a median transfer error of 17%. Overall, MRA appears to be useful for deriving the economic value of wetlands at policy sites in developing nations.
JEL-Codes: Q25, Q51, Q57
Keywords: meta-regression analysis, valuing ecosystem services, value transfer, wetlands
No. 2015_1   (Download full text)
Zohid Askarov and Hristos Doucouliagos
Spatial Aid Spillovers During Transition
We investigate whether development aid stimulates growth in transition economies, paying particular attention to the possibility of spatial spillovers arising from aid. We find that aid has a positive impact on growth of the recipient country. However, aid also appears to generate adverse growth spillovers on other nations. In contrast, we find significant positive spatial spillovers from good policies and there is some evidence that growth in one transition economy tends to spillover to bordering countries. Spillovers are an important part of the growth experience of transitional economies.
JEL-Codes: O4, O5, F35
Keywords: aid effectiveness, spatial spillovers, transition economies
No. 2014_9   (Download full text)
Jae Kim, Hristos Doucouliagos and Hendrix College
Market Efficiency in Asian and Australasian Stock Markets: A Fresh Look at the Evidence
Market efficiency is an important feature of successful financial markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze the available evidence on the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). Meta-regression analysis is applied to 1,560 estimates of the Variance Ratio test of the efficiency of Asian and Australasian stock markets. We test if there is evidence of violation of the EMH and we also explain the heterogeneity in the reported test results. Our meta-regression analysis specifically accommodates the possibility of publication selection in favor of accepting the null hypothesis of market efficiency. We find that Asian stock markets are, on average, not informationally efficient. However, market efficiency has improved over time and market capitalization and economic freedom influences stock market efficiency; more developed and less regulated stock markets are more efficient.
JEL-Codes: G10, G14
Keywords: Random walk, meta-regression, efficient market hypothesis
No. 2014_8   (Download full text)
Zohid Askarov and Hristos Doucouliagos
Aid and Institutions in Transition Economies
We investigate whether aid contributed to institutional development in transition economies. We find that aid flows have a positive effect on democratization, especially on constraints on the executive and political participation. At the same time, total aid has no effect on overall quality of governance, while US aid appears to have a negative impact on some dimensions of governance. Aid’s differential impact on democracy and governance is consistent with uneven development of institutions and the democracy consolidation hypothesis. We also find that aid has a non-linear effect on democracy. Openness has a positive effect on both democracy and good governance. Oil resources have an adverse effect on democracy. Adult mortality, civil war and adherence to Islam are all detrimental to good governance.
Keywords: aid, institutions, democracy, governance
No. 2014_7   (Download full text)
Pedro Gomis-Porqueras, Timothy Kam and Christopher Waller
Breaking the Curse of Kareken and Wallace with Private Information
We study the endogenous choice to accept fiat objects as media of exchange and the implications for nominal exchange rate determination. We consider an economy with two currencies which can be used to settle any transactions. However, currencies can be counterfeited at a fixed cost and the decision to counterfeit is private information. This induces equilibrium liquidity constraints on the currencies in circulation. We show that the threat of counterfeiting can pin down the nominal exchange rate even when the currencies are perfect substitutes, thus breaking the Kareken-Wallace indeterminacy result. We also find that with appropriate fiscal policies we can enlarge the set of monetary equilibria with determinate nominal exchange rates. Finally, we show that the threat of counterfeiting can also help determine nominal exchange rates in a variety of different trading environments. These include a two-country setup with tradable and non-tradable goods sectors, and with an alternative timing of money injections.
JEL-Codes: D82, D83, F4
Keywords: Multiple Currencies, Counterfeiting Threat, Liquidity, Exchange Rates
No. 2014_6   (Download full text)
Craig A. Gallet and Hristos Doucouliagos
There is much disparity in estimates of the income elasticity of air travel across the literature. We examine this disparity by applying meta-regression techniques. Controlling for several issues, including publication selection bias, while our preferred baseline income elasticity estimate of 1.186 is consistent with air travel being a luxury and a slightly immature market, there are several features of the literature which sway the income elasticity away from this baseline. For instance, the income elasticity increases to 1.546 on international routes, yet decreases to 0.633 when air fare is included in a dynamic specification of demand, ceteris paribus. Other characteristics of the literature, such as those involving various data and estimation choices, have less influence on the reported income elasticity.
Keywords: income elasticity, air travel, meta-regression analysis
No. 2014_5   (Download full text)
Zohid Askarov and Hristos Doucouliagos
Development Aid and Growth in Transition Economies
Empirical studies normally analyze diverse and heterogeneous groups of countries, producing very mixed evidence on the effectiveness of development aid in promoting growth. We focus on whether aid promotes economic growth in transitional economies. We find that aid, on average, has had a positive impact on growth for this specific group of countries. This result is robust to samples, estimators, and the use of alternate instruments to address endogeneity. Aid effectiveness is not conditional on good policy and there is little evidence of non-linear growth effects arising from aid.
No. 2014_4   (Download full text)
Randy Silvers and Raul Susmel
Compensation of a Manager: The Case of Major League Baseball
In this paper, we are interested in the impact a Major League Baseball (MLB) manager has on a team’s outcome. Using data on manager’s contracts, team performance, and team and manager characteristics, first, we determine the variables that determine a manager's salary. Then, we use a forecasting-type analysis to study the determinants of a manager’s performance, measured by winning percentage, attendance or playoff appearances. We find that a manager's past performance affects his current salary, but his current salary does not affect the team's performance. Our results support the lack of a competitive and efficient market for MLB managers.
No. 2014_3   (Download full text)
Incorporating cultural values and preferences in wetland valuation and policy
This paper reports the findings of a choice modelling study designed to estimate the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for improvement of the ecosystem services of Bung Khong Long wetland in Thailand. The findings indicate that the cultural values associated with the wetland are significant suggesting that incorporating culture preferences may be a key factor in supporting wetland conservation. Attitudinal characteristics of respondents are important factors influencing WTP, implying community preferences are important in the effectiveness of environmental conservation efforts for this community.
Keywords: Wetland valuation, Cultural values, Choice modelling
No. 2014_2   (Download full text)
Emin Gahramanov and Xueli Tang
Impatient in Experiments, but Patient in Simulations: A Challenge to a Neoclassical Model.
Despite ample empirical evidence on the prevalence of high discount rates among people, applied, quantitative-theoretical macro studies with exponential discounting often assume low positive, or even negative discount rate values. Relying on recent advances from the numerical optimal control branch of mathematics, we solve a neoclassical, continuous time model of endogenous consumption/saving and labor supply, and show that even if an agent has a moderately high discount rate, his labour supply and consumption behavior will be highly counterfactual. We provide a remedy to such counterfactual findings by augmenting a standard utility function based on recent evidences from the leisure sciences, while maintaining a rational choice approach of neoclassical economics.
JEL-Codes: D91, C02, C61, J22, J26
Keywords: Bounded control; Numerical Optimal Control; Life-cycle Consumption and Labor-Leisure
No. 2014_10   (Download full text)
Mehmet Ulubasoglu, Debdulal Mallick, Mokhtarul Wadud, Phillip Hone and Henry Haszler
Food Demand Elasticities for Australia
There is renewed interest in robust estimates of food demand elasticities at a disaggregated level not only to analyse the impact of changing food preferences on the agricultural sector, but also to establish the likely impact of pricing incentives on households. Using data drawn from two national Household Expenditure Surveys covering the periods 1998/99 and 2003/04, and adopting an Almost Ideal Demand System approach that addresses the zero observations problem, this paper estimates a food demand system for 15 food categories for Australia. The categories cover the standard food items that Australian households demand routinely. Own-price, crossprice and expenditure elasticity estimates of the Marshallian and Hicksian types have been derived for all categories. The parameter estimates obtained in this study represent the first integrated set of food demand elasticities based on a highly disaggregated food demand system for Australia, and all accord with economic intuition.
Keywords: Food demand, AIDS model, Australia
No. 2014_1   (Download full text)
Emin Gahramanov and Xueli Tang
Career Interruptions: A Neglected Aspect of a Neoclassical Model
There is voluminous literature on the reasons behind career interruptions, ranging from maternity leave and organizational layoffs, to national service and human capital acquisition. We show that a standard, neoclassical model of intertemporal consumption/saving and labor/leisure choices without any friction can generate multiple career interruptions as a natural outcome of a consumption/leisure smoothing exercise performed by perfectly rational agents. Given the complexity of such a model, and to be consistent with traditions from the optimal control branch of mathematics, we use advances in numerical optimal control to solve a neoclassical problem.
JEL-Codes: J22, J26, D91, C02, C61
Keywords: Career interruptions; Life-cycle consumption and labor-leisure; Bounded control; Pseudospectral optimal control.
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