Meeting between US and North Korean leaders could hang on a whim: Deakin expert

“Any discussions had during the meeting could count for nothing if the two somewhat idiosyncratic leaders get frustrated with each other, take offence to overly assertive claims, and abandon the process or, worse, get into another slanging match,” Professor Kingsbury said.

“For this to be insured against, both leaders will need to be surrounded by strong teams able to moderate the possibility of any excesses of personality.

“To date, there has been little evidence of such strong yet conciliatory advisory teams. Without them, the chances of an agreed outcome could hang on a whim.”

Professor Kingsbury conceded that while there is still time for the proposed meeting to be derailed, some possible scenarios for the meeting are becoming clear.

“The US position is that North Korea must abandon its nuclear weapons development and long-range missile programs and that verification of the decommissioning of weapons can only come from independent (probably UN) experts which be a huge step for an otherwise secretive North Korea,” Professor Kingsbury said.

“While these weapons programs have been the means by which the North Korean leadership legitimises itself, the recent acceleration in their development could be viewed as building a bargaining point with the US and others.

“As the main bargaining point, North Korea would not give up these weapons without major concessions from the US and South Korea, which is where negotiations are most likely to falter.”

Professor Kingsbury explained that North Korea would likely ask for security guarantees, including the ending of wargaming and active sea and air patrols in its strategic areas of interest, and for the US to remove its own nuclear capability from South Korea or at least try to have the permanent US military presence in South Korea also ended.

“The US might be able to accede to some of these requirements, however their presence in South Korea goes beyond concern with North Korea,” he said.

“The US presence in South Korea, and in neighbouring Japan, also represents a buffer against a strategically more assertive China.

“North Korean requests that the US abandon this regional posture may therefore run up against resistance for reasons that are not connected to North Korea as such, and this is where the talks could fail.

“The US will counter with a promise of withdrawing sanctions, and offering aid and infrastructure support and perhaps even going back to an earlier proposal to assist in developing a civilian nuclear power generator.

“If there was also some attendant security guarantee for North Korea, perhaps offered by China, this might work.”