Featured researcher: Professor Catherine Bennett

• 17/8/2021: The unlinked “mystery” cases keep coming in Melbourne and we are still finding a third of new cases only after they are infectious. Add those two things together and it translates to even more exposure sites – and that means more cases. This is the vicious cycle created by the speed of transmission of the Delta variant. It is awful to confront the idea of yet more weeks of lockdown — even more so as they come with added layers of rules and enforcement — but the reality is we are confronted by a very different version of the virus than that which led to our lockdown this time last year. Delta has shifted the goalposts and only a team effort can beat it
• 12/8/2021: Delta danger means lockdown extension crucial to contain spread
• 7/8/2021: Victorian lockdown likely to be extended as cluster sources remain unknown "We must close these two loopholes in the management of primary close contacts. This is more critical than ever with Delta making it unlikely that primary close contacts can be identified and isolated before they become infectious.
  In Victoria last month those people that we know contracted the virus by attending an event or game that a case was at were infectious for 1.7 days on average before starting quarantine.
  The same would apply to any “silent cases” that went undetected among the 1/4 or more of primary contacts who quarantined but did not get tested. If there were public exposure sites linked to these missed cases, then they were missed too.
  All household contacts of primary close contacts are automatically quarantined. But by quarantining with an untested primary contact who is actually a case, they are very likely to become infected too, lagging some days behind.
  Household contacts of a primary contact who hasn’t tested positive, or hasn’t tested at all, won’t be tested at the end of quarantine if the primary contact has a negative test then - which they will even if they were a “silent case” as it would now be more than 2 weeks since their exposure and they will have cleared the infection. Their household contacts are then released… untested and potentially still infectious.
  All primary contacts must test at the start to ensure they are were not infectious whilst in the community. We are told this might be a barrier and discourage contacts from coming forward, but surely 14 days of quarantine is the greater deterrent. That said we should make testing easier, via home visit, given the enormous potential cost of missing a case.
  Secondly, all household contacts of a primary close contact should also be required to test on day 13. Even if the primary contact does always get tested, then there is always a chance a primary contact is still incubating at test 1 so the test result is negative, and then the infection has cleared by day 12 so they test negative again, but infected their household contacts in the meantime.
  We risk unrecorded exposes and transmission opportunities at both ends of quarantine if we don’t get this right. If thousands of people are going to do the right thing by quarantining.. let’s make it count."
• 5/8/2021: Victoria will enter its sixth lockdown from 8pm on Thursday in response to the emergence of new mystery cases of COVID-19 in recent days. Contact tracing is no longer enough to contain an outbreak of the Delta variant – people who have contracted the virus just can’t be found fast enough. Lockdown six needed to tackle mystery cases
• 5/8/2021: Prominent epidemiologist explains why we’re ‘on the edge’ of another lockdown
• 2/6/2021: Tough but necessary measure to tame the beast
• 31/3/2021: My summary in the Age. Now eight more QL community cases have been announced overnight - five people associated with the nurse and her sister. One other a known contact of the previous male cluster, and two still being investigated. Authorities now believe the nurse did contract the virus from work though are still waiting on genomic results. Brisbane outbreak sends us all a strong warning
• 30/3/2021: QL update - we have two clusters stemming from two distinct index infection events associated with two returned travellers. Both had the B.1.1.7 variant, but different enough to allow us to distinguish between the two clusters. First it’s worth clarifying that QL does not have hot hotels, health hotels or SHA hotels like other states, all returned travelers who test positive are relocated into hospital instead. The original Princess Alexandria Hospital doctor who was infected on March 9 and tested positive March 12 is linked to the first cluster. In this group we have three close contacts who are PCR negative but have antibodies and so may have recovered from an earlier infection. But we do not know how they physically link back to the hospital. Maybe the latest two will hold the clue. Five cases now linked to the Princess Alexandria nurse cluster. One further new case is linked to a close contact but we don’t know from which cluster. 14 community cases now including that original doctor. Tonight a further case was reported, again linked to the Princess Alexandria Hospital. Today the CHO said they know they haven't any missed cases in the community because all the cases they have found are linked. But they are actively testing contacts so that’s not surprising. If all cases cannot yet be epi-linked to the index case, unknown cases are out there.
• 29/3/2021: QL lockdown - So much one could say but that’s why they have word limits on articles! Let’s hope that we hear more about actual epi linkages between cases now the genomics have (so far) identified these as one cluster associated with the Princess Alexandra Hospital case from March 9. It’s the epi links, the way cases overlap in person, time and place, that tell us when and where transmission occurred. This also helps map the outbreak and the risk of their being more missed cases. Without this, the 3-day lockdown may be destined to run longer. Testing rates are up the last two days, so fingers crossed any other cases will be found through this and rapid contact tracing. Our hearts go out to all those in Greater Brisbane now, or that have been there in the last couple of weeks. COVID in Brisbane: 3-day lockdown begins as authorities scramble to find missing links
• 19/11/2020: Experts, including Deakin University Chair in Epidemiology Professor Catherine Bennett say SA got it right, even if the measures seem overly restrictive.
• 18/11/2020: Epidemiologists say six-day lockdown enough to contain SA outbreak
• 16/11/2020: Catherine joins the panel to discus the Adelaide COVID-19 cluster: The Drum Monday November 16
• 14/11/2020: How an Australian state beat its second wave of COVID-19
• 10/11/2020: Watch as Catherine talks about how Melbourne got on top of the second wave Melbourne Crushes Covid-19
• 9/11/2020: Victoria's achievement in bringing down daily coronavirus numbers from 700 new cases a day in August to none in the past 10 days has led Ireland and other European countries to seek our experts' advice on how the state did it. Zeroing in on Victoria's suppression success
• 8/11/2020: “We were more sedate after wave 1 in Melbourne (according to mobility measures and number of close contacts) and will be interesting to see what happens this time. Feels really busy in places already, but to be honest we have all adapted so much to isolation so hard to judge!” After Crushing Covid, Melbourne Emerges Wary and More Sedate
• 6/11/2020: “Victorians may be rewarded on Sunday after their perfect week of zero coronavirus cases with a more widespread easing of restrictions than had been planned.” After seven doughnut days, Victoria set to be 'much closer to normal'
• 1/11/2020: Catherine Bennett: Now that Melbourne’s COVID-19 lockdown has ended, what’s next?
• 31/10/2020: “Victoria may still have some work to do in communications and case management, but in all other respects we are there with contact tracing. And with our numbers down (only 1 new case today, 14-day average at 2.4 and 2 mystery cases in a fortnight), we should now be able to keep numbers down and outbreaks contained so that we never have to test the system at high case numbers again! NSW continues to have low-level community transmission with 20 cases in the last fortnight, averaging 1.4 cases a day. I am not sure why so much emphasis is being placed on “difference” when arguably we are in the same boat, although Vic has the advantage of less risk of wider community transmission for now at least as we emerge from our extended lockdown. Let’s hope both states can close off community transmission.. then we can celebrate together, move fully to prevention mode, and borders won’t be an issue!” Top epidemiologist rates Victoria’s contact tracing as the ‘gold standard’
• 28/10/2020: Victoria and only a handful of countries have achieved zero from second wave

• Melbourne's reopening is on a 'cautious pause' as authorities await the results of thousands of tests from the city's north: Why Melbourne's coronavirus reopening is on hold as regional Victoria steps forward

• “We should be able to manage this regardless of whether we are open or not. Part of this spread could in fact be due to the challenge of getting complex information to families in a way that allows them to do the right thing. We need a clear explanation about why the system can't cope and why we aren’t opening.” Premier's 'cautious pause' draws fire after plans thrown into disarray by outbreak
• "I really hope we get through October and see the end of the ring of steel before November or by November." Victoria could remove ring of steel border around Melbourne next month, Daniel Andrews says
• Coronavirus Victoria: Melbourne makes world history crushing second wave
• City's 5km limit could go to 20km, with models being run 'as we speak'
• Epidemiologist weighs in on whether Melbourne’s COVID-19 rules should be eased
• Victorian 'pivot' opens path out of lockdown
• A 14-day rolling average of 5 new daily cases is the wrong trigger for easing Melbourne lockdown. Let’s look at ‘under investigation’ cases instead
• Catherine talks to 10's The Project: The Project TV: Time To End Lockdown?
• Catherine talks to ABC NewsRadio's Thomas Oriti about how being able to control outbreaks is the key to lifting restrictions Tougher Covid-19 restrictions in Victoria
• “Case numbers don’t necessarily mean Melbourne has to postpone moving to step three, which would involve allowing outdoor dining for cafes and restaurants from next week” Which COVID restrictions are likely to be eased next week?
• “Another 14 cases today, but who’d have thought we’d be disappointed with a 14-day average under 10! Burnet modeling commissioned by DHHS had us with only a 17% chance of a resurgence if we opened up to the final step with up to 10 new cases daily, and even that assumed no ramping up of our outbreak response as numbers started to climb.. and predates the contacts of contacts “ring of containment” now being deployed. We are therefore more than ready to go to just the next step! We need to hear more of these positive predictions.” The new Covid-normal: is Victoria ready to come out of lockdown?
• "With case numbers in the community dropping in metro, including at least 3 days in a row this week with zero mystery cases, there is more chat about the next steps for both metro and regional Vic. The focus for most of us now is on suppression of risk, not suppression of actual transmission. That is, the suppression of seeding potential and of outbreak potential. If the virus happens to land in a worker who takes it home to another part of town or the State, then the less mixing there this, the more likely it is that it will simply die out, or be contained effectively if known about and tracing done.
  
  If the regions move another step, then the State remains out of sync. The Premier has already suggested the State may not reunite even if metro does move to join regional Vic on Step 3 on ~ Oct 19. Hopefully this will all be moot if these outbreaks are shut down in the next 2 weeks. Then we can be back in sync and move as a State towards the last steps. Melburnians staying the course under very strict lockdown for the sake of these small outbreaks is probably as frustrating as it is for regional Victoria under restrictions with no cases. It will be a great day when we can move to the final step and put this difficult phase behind us." Low COVID-19 case numbers have regional businesses straining against Victoria's restrictions
• Daniel Andrews will detail the next step in Melbourne's coronavirus restrictions roadmap today
• "If people are taking care and we're moving to step three … [the outbreak] is contained, it's not high-risk" More COVID-19 restrictions may be eased in Victoria on Sunday. Here's what the health experts think
• "It's unlikely there is now underlying community transmission in regional Victoria because of the length of the lockdown" Safe for NSW to open up to regional Victoria, experts say
• "Victoria's dropping case numbers are "tracking better" than modelling initially suggested and the state's daily figures could warrant fast-tracking the lifting of lockdown restrictions." 'No epidemiological argument for border closure' if case numbers fall at this rate
• If you take out the positive cases linked to known outbreaks, the proportion of cases coming back positive dropped to below 0.1 per cent. Victoria should take 'cautious' approach to early easing of coronavirus restrictions, expert says
• The lowest 24-hour increase since nine cases were recorded on June 16 brings Melbourne’s rolling 14-day average to 34.4. 11 new cases, two deaths; Melbourne’s harsh lockdown could end weeks early
• Common sense must guide us on this road map, and will allow a shift in focus to the important business of evidence-based prevention, early warning systems and testing strategies, backed up by contact tracing and outbreak response readiness, writes Catherine Bennett in The Age Dropping cases should lead to a 'common-sense' rethink on opening up
• Catherine Bennett chats to Patricia Karvelas on RN Drive Victoria to boost coronavirus contact tracing
• On 6 September, the State Government announced the stage four lockdown would be extended by two weeks, with more significant restrictions to be eased in late October. Experts question model and map as new cases fall to lowest since June
• The Victorian Government's roadmap to easing coronavirus restrictions has been met with varied reactions. Victoria's coronavirus restrictions roadmap could exacerbate anxiety and prolong economic pain, experts say
• Catherine's thoughts on Victoria's roadmap out of restrictions Steps out will be incremental, frustrating, even arbitrary
• The Conversation asked four experts, including Catherine Bennett, what they see as the most important aspects of Victoria’s path out of stage four. Four perspectives on how Victoria should exit stage 4 lockdown
• Allowing households to open their doors to one or two close friends and family in a 'germ bubble' is being considered as a possible route out of stage four lockdown and the loneliness that goes with it. The lonely and the learned back 'germ bubbles' as the way to ease lockdown
• COVID curfew crunch: Nearly $1 million in fines but medicos are split on its effectiveness
• “Evaluation of interventions now will allow us to move from blunt shutdowns to precision tactics in our COVID-19 fight, and help chart our way out of our current lockdown safely.” Stage four lockdown offers a chance to find out path out
• “The Stage 5 threat - not the best way to encourage compliance. The compliance engineered into stage 4 should be more than enough to bring this under control. Otherwise, we risk going to even more restrictions to stop people from mixing, or give up on control attempts and live with consequences. Doesn’t bear to think about either, so let’s make this work and work fast!” Stage 5 ahead? What Melbourne could face if COVID cases don’t decline
• “Lockdown is the key to killing off clusters that we can’t see, as well as the ones we can. Arguments for a “stage 4” lockdown are lost on me... why use a NZ style shutdown when consensus is that was overkill first time round, (especially as Aus and Melb achieved same outcome) and there is no evidence it will make a difference given current epidemic dynamics. Reduced mobility, more distancing, masks and isolation if symptomatic is the path to shutting this down.” Victorian lockdown high COVID case numbers mean longer lockdown necessary

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• 9/11/2020: Catherine chats to 3AW How epidemiologists think Victoria’s mask rules should change
• 9/11/2020: Major change to Victoria's coronavirus rules: Masks may no longer be compulsory in public as the state heads towards a week of no new cases - but there is a catch
• 8/11/2020: “Premier Daniel Andrews has ended Victoria’s state of disaster, disbanded the crisis committee of cabinet and after 124 days opened the “ring of steel” which had kept Melburnians out of the regions as a reward for a ninth day in a row of no new coronavirus cases and no deaths.” Masks should go, experts say, as 'ring of steel' is abolished
• 5/11/2020: “Victorians are still getting used to wearing masks every time they leave the house but not everyone's wearing them correctly — and health experts say the messaging needs to be much clearer.” Victoria coronavirus rules on face masks should be clearer, experts say
• 1/11/2020: "We know that [masks] reduce risk dramatically — in some settings they say masks can reduce the risk of people becoming infected by up to 50 per cent." Low COVID-19 risk in regional Victoria, but this is no time to take off your mask, expert says
• Victorians must now wear fitted face masks instead of bandannas, scarves, plastic face shields as masks have been deemed more effective at stopping droplet spread. Masks are better than face shields: Experts say why
• Watch as Catherine talks to Skynews about Victorian restrictions.Stage three and masks are 'surely enough to manage COVID-19' in Victoria
• Research suggests the growing use of alternative face coverings may not be helpful in curbing the spread of COVID-19. Face shields not effective replacements for cloth masks, experts say
• “Warning - this story refers to facts and therefore may be considered offensive by some. Congratulations to SBS for pulling together this response.” Fact-checking Andrew Bolt’s claims about Melbourne’s mandatory mask order

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